Real Time Black Friday Trends
Trends From The 2025 Black Friday Run Up
As we barrel toward the heart of Black Friday, the landscape is shifting fast. What began as a steady climb in traffic and demand has now accelerated into the familiar frenzy that defines November in performance marketing.
The early movers are reaping the benefits; those still holding back are beginning to feel the pressure.
With costs climbing, attention tightening, and consumer intent peaking, the next two weeks will be defined by precision, speed, and clear decision making.
Below is a snapshot of what we’re seeing across the portfolio, and what it means for your brand right now.
CPM-Mania
For months, we’ve preached the value of starting early. With more than a decade of Black Friday data behind us, we knew the annual CPM surge was inevitable, and, here we are ladies and gentlemen: It has officially arrived.
At Growth Collective, we’re uniquely positioned to monitor trends across ~20 active brands, giving us a real snapshot of what’s happening on the ground right now. Here’s how it is playing out in aggregate:
- Average CPM in week 1: ~$17.50
- Average CPM in week 2: ~$20
- Average CPM in week 3: $23.50
This steady climb has a dramatic downstream effect on your reach. The CPM spread above results in roughly 15,400 fewer unique impressions for every $1,000 spent. Stretch that across a full week of spend and you’re looking at well over 100,000 missed impressions… and that’s before the real holiday pressure kicks in.
The good news? It’s not too late to start. CPM’s will inevitably continue to rise until the end of the month, so maximizing your reach now is more important than ever.
Pop Up Testing Results
Alongside the CPM spike, we’ve been aggressively testing Black Friday forward pop-up messaging. One universal truth has emerged: every pop-up updated with seasonal language is seeing at least a 50% lift in submission rate. Yes.. at least.
A major lever here is expanded testing capability. While most brands rely on Klaviyo’s native pop-ups, we’ve begun rolling out Alia for a handful of brands because of its ability to support A/B/C testing. The insights so far have been genuinely surprising.
For one of our sleep brands—traditionally sitting around a 5.5–6% opt-in rate—we tested three distinct Black Friday variants:
- “Mystery Discount” (no Black Friday mention)
- “Black Friday Is Here”
- Hybrid “Mystery Black Friday”
The results speak for themselves:
- All versions outperformed the brand’s evergreen offer
- The pure Mystery Discount (no BF language) generated the highest opt-in and SMS signup rate by a wide margin
- The version solely focused on Black Friday was a clear under performer
- The hybrid variant sat comfortably in between
We’ll be rolling this “mystery” framing across additional accounts over the coming days, with the goal of selecting winning variants just in time for the highest grossing week of the year.
Another meaningful refinement we’ve made for brands utilizing Klaviyo’s native pop up pertains to targeting logic.
For most of the year, we suppress welcome pop-ups for anyone with an existing Klaviyo profiles. But for Black Friday, the rule flips:
→ Everyone should see the promotional details.
→ New visitors and returning customers alike.
This ensures no one misses your most important offer of the year simply because they opted in eight months ago.
Final Thoughts:
As we enter the most competitive stretch of the year, the brands that win will be the ones that act decisively, test intelligently, and scale with intention.
The data is clear, and the momentum is building. Whether you’re optimizing your pop-ups, scaling spend, or simply trying to stay ahead of rising costs, every adjustment matters.
We’ll continue monitoring trends across all accounts in real time and sharing what’s working, what’s breaking, and what needs to happen next.
Here’s to a strong, steady push into the final and most consequential week of Q4.