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Knee Deep in Black Friday: Choosing and Planning Holiday Budgets

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It’s been an exceptionally focused and productive week at Growth Collective, where the team continues to operate in full holiday execution mode. After months of preparation that began back in September, the group took a brief pause to celebrate its progress over dinner earlier this week. A night of Izakaya plates and far too much soju offered a welcome reset before the busiest stretch of the season truly begins.

Across the portfolio, early activation is proving its value. Roughly one third of partner brands are already live with holiday offers, half will launch between next Monday and Friday, and the remainder shortly after. Those who opted to move early are benefiting from lower media costs, stronger visibility, and a head start in capturing seasonal demand. Many are already reporting meaningful year over year lifts driven by thoughtful buying strategies, resonant creative, and well structured email programs.

What We Are Seeing: Demand Pull Forward and Sustained Momentum

For brands that launched ahead of the traditional Black Friday surge, one pattern has become unmistakable. The consumer demand that typically concentrates around a single long weekend is appearing earlier and more consistently this year. Performance data across several accounts shows the same story: shoppers who might have waited are converting well before the peak, as depicted in the two charts below:

This early lift delivers several advantages. It enables brands to secure wallet share before competition intensifies, stabilizes cash flow, and minimizes exposure to rising CPMs.

The most compelling reason to pull demand forward is the expanded runway it creates. When the period of heightened consumer interest begins earlier, brands gain a longer window to convert new customers and maintain momentum through paid media.

So how does Growth Collective navigate this window, and what does that mean for your own approach?

Two Methods of Budget Allocation: Snowball vs. Avalanche

Credit where it’s due - these terms are borrowed from the world of personal finance made popular by the likes of Dave Ramsey. But they translate surprisingly well to Black Friday planning.

When approaching budgets for early Black Friday offers, there are two predominantly popular approaches: Snowball and Avalanche.

The snowball method is certainly the more ‘conservative’ approach, aligning budgets with the “traditional” pattern of consumer intent. The premise: consumers have a higher likelihood of converting as we approach closer and closer to Black Friday. There’s definitely some merit to this, and depending on how risk-tolerant you are to your cash flow, it may be the right move for your brand. If you see early signs of strong performance, you can slowly increase your budget over time.

On the contrary, Avalanche is the polar opposite (no pun intended). This involves increasing your budget significantly right away, with the intention of either maintaining it, or slightly reducing it throughout the sale period. However, the risk here is real: if results are underwhelming, you’ve already ‘shown your hand’ and limit your budget as you approach Black Friday.

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👉 When choosing which method is right for you, there isn’t a one size fit all answer. We have observed that brands spending under $30K per month tend to lean towards the Snowball method, whereas brands with larger budgets land in the Avalanche camp.👈

Which Method Does Growth Collective Prefer?

We are a big believer that well-prepared brands can’t and won’t fail. If all the necessary components of a solid Black Friday integrated communication plan are in place, pulling demand forward in a big way is our preference. From a Paid Media perspective, it couldn’t be truer that your cost of reach matters. Front loading the spend provides a plethora of benefits as outlined, and provides the opportunity to maintain a larger spend over the course of the campaign.

Final Thoughts:

Regardless of the method you choose, strive to maximize the effectiveness of your spend between now and the end of your campaign. Our team spent all day Tuesday planning out our target spend for each client on Black Friday itself. We analyzed variables such as how last year performed, where budgets are at today, length of campaign and overall sales targets. Working backwards we were able to establish spend schedules, defining spend milestones and target dates in order to maximize returns for every brand. You should do the same.

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